A still little readable employment policy

The Government hoped, even a few weeks ago, enjoy the benefits of the priority given to the fight against insecurity, embodied by Nicolas Sarkozy, and his ability to reform, for example on pensions. It is the theme social "social insecurity", dixit the left finally prevailed in the last week and has been given in the poll. With regard to the reforms, the electorate is is probably shared between those who want to further reforms and those who feel that the Government did not go quite quickly. Review of the data which have weighed on the electoral result.

Too soft growth. Six months after his arrival at the controls, the Raffarin Government had announced the return of strong growth. Instead, the year 2003 escaped recession ( 0.2), recording its worst performance for ten years. Since then, the Government is more cautious, and provides, in line with economists, a growth of 1.7 this year. But this still fragile recovery is essentially drawn by external markets and therefore few perceived by the French. Consumers are also higher than the official price increase inflation, and questioned their purchasing power. If it is stabilized between 9.6 and 9.7 of the workforce, unemployment has not yet initiated of recession. Finally, public debt and high debt (4.1 and 63 of the GDP last year) leaves little margin of manoeuvre to the Government.

A still little readable employment policy. The Government pays no doubt the rise in unemployment, even strong ( 177.000 presidential job-seekers), but perhaps especially the perceived that there is not any employment. After a year devoted to the initiatives of the previous legislature (35 hours, jobs-young), Jean-Pierre Raffarin and François Fillon, Minister of Social Affairs, have failed to give high visibility to their own projects, if not the questioning of compensation for the deprived of employment. The contents of the great law on employment promised late December by Jacques Chirac he still remains quite vague.

The forgotten precariousness. "The right had the opportunity to resume the left the theme of the fight against poverty, she completely let him pass. It is the President of a large charity who speaks. So far, the action of the Government in the field of the Insert especially marked reforms appeared as rebates in question: the tightening of the conditions of access to medical assistance to State (AME), which has caused sharp polemics, the creation of minimum activity income (RMA), criticized by the left and many associations. On the reform of unemployment insurance, at January 1, coupled with the prospect of a hardening of the specific solidarity allowance which takes over, in many cases, from the end of the rights to the Assedic allowances, it probably helped feed, in many of the French, the idea of a governmental indifference to the problems of exclusion. In the same way, the conflict of the research is also focuses on the precarious situation of many young researchers.

The heat effect. It is in this context, no doubt, must be interpreted the crisis of the heat of summer, and its consequences. Without it can be said with certainty what was the impact on the election, the French were likely to blame the Government inattention to their daily problems, a lack of proximity which the Prime Minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, but had one of its strengths. With the decline in popularity of Jean-François Mattei, from Minister of the civil society, the head of the Government was deprived of one of its strengths.

An agitated social climate. After a very hectic in the public service and a quiet fall spring, the beginning of the year was marked by the rise of corporate conflicts, to which the Government replied in very different ways. Remained firm to the researchers, it however assigned to claims both of tobacconists as conservators, traditionally inclined to vote right professions and which are also important opinion relays.