The real economy in turn accuses the shock

There was a quasi-krach on financial markets Friday. Does this mean that they do not believe in the effectiveness of the measures taken in recent weeks

It is always dangerous to try to analyze the psychology of the markets. All that can be said is that most markets are efficient, more quickly react to the information they receive, and most follow a random walk that we cannot predict the future course from those of yesterday or today. Awards immediately responded to the Bank rescue plans in amount, now they react to bad news on the economic activity by lowering. Or rather they overshoot, as often, because each is on the market on the basis of the opinion that it is of the opinion of others. Keynes called it "the beauty contest". But beyond the elusive psychology of the markets, which says nothing about the future, there is an objective fact which is rather down markets: many actors are désendettent and are therefore obliged to sell to obtain liquidity. What is certain, is that if the fall in stock market prices continues and if we continue to value the assets at a price of the market in the balance sheets, it will contribute in turn to aggravate the crisis.

Today, can it be said that the peak of the financial crisis is passed

Nobody knows anything! The liquidity crisis appears to be. But who can say in the jungle of securitization, derivatives, synthetic, swaps, which are toxic Who can say how the debt bubble to deflate In any event the return of confidence will be slow and will require a profound transformation of the global financial system. It is for this that the November 15 Summit is essential and that it cannot be a Summit for nothing.

The European plan is given priority to restore the confidence...

Yes, but the security of the State, it is an exceptional response to a situation of exceptional crisis. Everything could collapse once the crisis of confidence prevent money between banks and depositors could be afraid for their economies.

States did what they had to. But for the future it must rebuild a system where banks finance the economy instead of finance speculation, where they do their job which is to assess the risk of credit and not seek to make money on the markets. This is not only a problem of individual behaviour. It is the system in which they found themselves placed with its too high performance requirements and its excessive pooling of risk which has led to, sometimes without knowing, reckless risks. At the time, enormous returns have emerged while huge risks accumulated in the system. What are these risks should now serve and this drift which disconnects the risk profitability must be corrected. It is the main challenge for a new financial regulation.

The real economy in turn accuses the shock. Can the current crisis lead to depression

The slowdown of activity is already there: it is felt around the world because of the globalization of the economy and financial globalization. Far will go this slowdown, no one knows. What we know, is that by reacting fast and hard in the liquidity problem was avoided a depression of the 1930s type. Now, do not take lightly the economic crisis and must respond without delay on the basis of the evolution in the situation. One recalls that to be too slow to respond to the serious financial crisis experienced in the early 1990, the Japan is sentenced to a stagnation in ten years of its economy. It is essential not to repeat that mistake.

If butt which was announced for ten days, would you say it's a stimulus policy

This semantic debate has no interest, it is to support the activity. Is this enough Need to do more in the coming months, then the Government will do more.

Why have preferred investment consumption After seeing scroll billions to the banks, the French may want for them.

Because by saving the economies and the jobs of the French, it is not the French In the current situation, the best way to support the standard of living of the French, this is to ensure that banks continue to lend and that companies do not put the key under the door! Why investment rather than consumption Because our economy is very open and that by stimulating purchases of foreign goods, it does not much stimulate domestic production. That investment, it is the best way to reconcile the requirements of short term and long term. Because need us in a position to enjoy to the best of the recovery when it comes. And it will come. May need a day to directly support the consumer but the European framework would be more suitable, because overall the European economy is much less open.

What will serve as the investment announced Thursday Fund: helping innovative SMEs to develop Help a large company to combat

a hostile takeover bid

World savings that research security rushes towards the Treasury bills and Government bonds. Should redirect this savings towards investment, to the production companies. It is the vocation of this Fund to be strategic objectives by investing in future bearing activities.

Is the State so good decision maker than that It has not always been so in the past... The Germany does not hide its annoyance...

It seems to me that at this time the infallibility of the markets is difficult to defend! And it is not to étatiser the economy but allow the State to be an entrepreneur and an investor with its own objectives. In the Alstom case this was not bad market and in the history of economic development and capitalism, the State has played a role which was not always negative. You will see that in the period that opens, will States be everywhere more present in the economy even though some are still struggling to imagine. And I prefer a State contractor and investor as a bureaucratic, protectionist, interventionist State. Europe will be the only one to suffer or to give it the means to act That is the question.

Intervention fund, 100 billion was discussed then the figure has been denied...

The funds will be mobilized as needed. It is an investment fund, is not a one-stop!

So how can this return of the State The State regains control of the economy

Non-equity will be temporary with aims to achieve capital gains. But beyond this Fund, I believe that there is actually tomorrow in the world economy another balance between politics and the market. In what form, for how long It is still too early to say.

Is it the 1960 state capitalism What are your role models

There is no template, it must be somehow reinventing the world emerges from this crisis. If tomorrow there must be a new form of state capitalism, it will probably not look to the 1960s or to the 19th century. For the best if we manage to agree on the new rules of the game world. For the worst if we fail. What I think, is that in the coming years the pressure of opinions likely to be higher than that of the markets. As said by the President last Thursday, if it does not meet the need for ethics, regulation, of fairness, one might well be in developed countries to the great revolt of the middle classes.

Why did you not decide sectoral plans, on the car including

The best answer is European, so coordinated with the other major automotive countries. The Americans gave 25 billion loans subsidised to the automotive industry. It is clear that one such measure the European doctrine on State aid cannot remain frozen. Europe will have to think about how to adapt to a changing world.

Is the debate over deficits a little exceeded

It was always poorly placed and in the current situation if it does not support the banks, and it does not support activity, deficits will increase much more. This is naturally not a reason to do anything and to take the public money.

Why the President persists on his idea of economic government of Europe at the risk of introducing a true dispute with Angela Merkel's

Europe needs more policy. It must learn the lessons of what she has been able to deal with the banking crisis. Support for banks, nobody wanted, and then everyone came. Support to the activity, person not wanted, now everyone in fact. Ideas evolve. But if it does not open the debate, there is no chance that things change. The euro area has need of an economic government The answer is Yes. Then why not say The Chairman opened the discussion. He did well.

George Bush is a little pull the ear to accept the international Summit...

Not simply ideas have evolved with the events. Imagine what it would have said a year ago if someone had been hypothesized in the United States or in England that in certain circumstances it could be useful to nationalize the biggest financial institutions in the country With awareness of ecological risk taking, the rise of identity tensions, terrorism, September 11, the war in Iraq, close the era of globalization happy. The financial crisis completes the pendulum movement. A new era opens. Many people realize. Americans like the others.

The crisis at work over the past year condemns a certain financial capitalism. At bottom, is that you rejoice to correct against everyone

Who would welcome such a disaster with its cortege of suffering I regret that it was impossible to discuss earlier excesses of the system to correct to wait for such a crisis. Financial capitalism has perverted capitalism and destroyed the system of values which have always gives its vitality and its creative power. The issue today, is to return to the ethical sources of true capitalism, the contractor, the reward the effort and merit, responsibility.