The activity rates of women still earned 0

Predict the evolution of the active population is a difficult exercise. While for years, experts assumed the next end of progression, and even its decline, it did that to continue to grow over the last decade. The progression is was nevertheless much slowed since 2005. Until last year, that has been marked, surprisingly, by a bond of 200,000 people, according to the balance sheet 2009 "employment, unemployment, labour force" just publish the Dares (Ministry of labour). Active population comprises all persons in employment (about 26 million) and the unemployed (2.7 million end of 2009). Its evolution is calculated as the sum of the evolution of the total employment (-321.000 between the fourth quarter of 2008 and the fourth quarter of 2009) and of unemployment ( 521.000) within the meaning of the international Bureau of labour (ILO). The rise in "dynamic" of the active population last year was not provided. Ageing population indeed slows its progression: "in 2009, the population of the 15-64 years increased by 150.000 people, while the increase was understood between 200,000 and 300,000 from 2003 to 2006", underlines the Dares. This is added the fact that, in the 15-64 years, progress has been very strong in aged 60-64 ( 232.000), less likely to work, when the 25-49 years lost an astounding 62 individuals (generations post-baby boom).

The impact of reforms

But, in contrast to these demographic effects, the increase in the activity of women, and for seniors, "still more present on the labour market", had a leading role. The activity rates of women still earned 0.7 points ( 0.3 for men), in 66.1. The gap with men is more than 8.8 points, against 11.1 in 2003. Evolution is even clearer for senior citizens, with rates of activity (men and women) an increase of 0.7 to 0.8 point. "End of 2009, 59.1 of those aged 50-64 are present on the market of labour, employment and unemployment," said the Dares.

A durable phenomenon linked to the successive reforms of pensions (1993, 2003, 2008). And more cyclical: last year, the number of retirements anticipated retirement for persons having started working very young collapsed due to hardening of the rules: it in was only 25,000, against more than 100,000 a year earlier. This complements the progressive end of the exemption of job searching for the 55-59 years. While previously they were compensated in respect of unemployment without be counted among the active (they were not job search), this is no longer the case today.

Final explanatory factor, the more difficult to measure: the evolution of the situation may encourage or discourage persons to enter the labour market. "In 2006 and 2007, strong job creation and lower unemployment have prompted a number of inactive to be on the labour market", said the survey. The crisis would have had the opposite effect from the second quarter of 2008, said Insee. In the end, with these explanations, the Dares j. "surprising upward of 200,000 people in the population active on its traditional determinants".

One thing is sure, it makes all the more essential the need for the French economy to massively recreate jobs to reverse the evolution of unemployment. According to the final balance of pole yesterday published employment, salaried employment has fallen by 1.5 in 2009, either 256.100 posts destroyed, reducing 16,28 million the number of employees in competitive sectors.