Specifically only Alsace seems still able to escape

If it is always dangerous to talk about the voting, some coincidences can be meaningless. The map of forbearance, in the first round of regional elections, strangely resembles that of the vote for the national Front. The strike of the polls and support for the extreme right party were thus more marked in the industrial France of Northeast particularly affected by the crisis. The two most spectacular teachings of this vote - the record low turnout and the relief of the FN - were thus part linked.

The sociology of the vote, or non-vote, illuminates this phenomenon. First are popular, and including workers, environments that have shunned the polling booths and voted in favour of training according. A survey conducted March 14 by OpinionWay (1) indicates that 62 of workers would be abstentions against 47 of senior managers. There, on the other hand, it's among the workers that the FN gets its best scores. He would have received 22 of their votes according to CSA (2) and 19 from OpinionWay, or more than the UMP in the environment (respectively 15 and 17).

These figures say, is not more clearly, how the 2007 sarkozyste Alchemy faded. The UMP candidate then managed to capture the votes of this pain France in the Northeast. His resoluteness had seduced a fraction of the electorate popular and reduced the influence of the lepénisme. Hard hit by the crisis and disappointed by the results of the Government in economic matters but also security policy and immigration, working France to massively veered away from the presidential majority. The phenomenon is probably not stable and there is little that it can be treated by any communication performance either.

The multifaceted repudiation of the popular categories is troubling for the UMP as their conquest often determines the electoral victories. In this regard, the choice of the leaders of the presidential majority minimize the warning of the ballot box Sunday night threatening to not be profitable in the second round. When voters feel to face a form of deafness of power, they are likely to repeat with stronger yet their message the following Sunday. Recall, moreover, that the general rule is that a second round confirms or even accentuate them trends revealed in the first.

Right turn and under very adverse conditions the March 21 vote. In the light of the figures in the first round, the left retains actual chances of winning all regions. Specifically, only Alsace seems still able to escape. In this region, run-off elections is very open with, perhaps, a slight advantage to the right. On paper, on the other hand, Corsica should switch to the left following the merger of its different lists.

The Socialist Presidents see their re-election greatly facilitated by the almost general merger of their lists with the ecologists or the left Front. Contrary to the hopes of the UMP, the vast majority of the voters of Europe ecology - between two thirds and three quarters surveys s ' are ready to support the left lists. In the three regions where the left is divided-l'Aquitaine, Brittany and the Limousin - ahead is such that his victory is not endangered.

The existence of twelve triangular with presence of the FN in the second round is another factor of success for the left. But this clearly should less victories in this configuration in 2004. There is little in Alsace, champagne-Ardenne and Franche-Comté that the left prevail, perhaps with the participation of the extreme-right in the decisive round. Elsewhere, the advance of the outgoing regional majorities is sufficient for their success depend not this configuration. Because the electorate frontist, more protest ever, is now very little inclined to come to the rescue of the UMP. For left-right duel, OpinionWay tells us, only 35 of them would vote for 42 of abstentions, of votes and list of the presidential majority against 23 for those left white or null. If one adds that the residual electorate of the Modem seems to be rather left leaning, measure the splendid isolation of the Party of the President.