While European countries and the Commission are agreed on the architecture of a stimulus plan (read page 3), the Government is manoeuvring for the decline in France. If the Executive has continually recalled the measures already taken financing of SMEs, purchase of housing, sovereign funds, tax relief, etc. , he knows that it will take to go further to support activity and give committed to its partners, in the light of the British plan unveiled today (see page 8). "It can hardly do less than 1 of GDP," said a government source, or approximately 20 billion. But this does not mean an increase in the deficit of same magnitude, since the study measures both on the budgetary expenditure of extra-budgetary investment and the mobilization of existing financing.
One thing is certain: the Elysée intends to focus on decisions targeted with a strong, quick and temporary effect on production. "We are working on a plan to revitalize the French infrastructure, implementing practical, tangible, sustainable development", stated Thursday, Nicolas Sarkozy. Example: the renovation of the housing to improve their efficiency (800,000 concerned housing) should be accelerated. Immediate benefits for the construction industry. The reasoning is the same for transportation. Of course, the State could reinforce its guarantees in TGV projects, that, subject to public-private partnerships, support behind. But, in the short term, it is especially the improvement of networks (catenary of the SNCF, maintenance of roads, roads, etc.) which is envisaged. "The impact of the stimulus plan to collect a few months, supports Xavier Timbeau, OFCE." If it chooses to support infrastructure, it is better to accelerate existing projects and launch of new. "Investment in infrastructure would also aim to improve competitiveness: digital, universities not selected in the campus plan, etc.
What will be the preferred financial tools The budget already 175 billion euros in investments over three years. The mobilization of this envelope could be accelerated. Debate stirs up the Government on the use of taxation, especially for real estate. Christine Boutin, Minister of housing, argues for an extension of VAT at 5.5 for housing purchases new, but it was unlikely to be followed. On the other hand, it could have the support of Bercy on the recovery of the amount of the loan zero (PTZ) and the revenue cap.
Social treatment of the unemployment
The Ministry of the economy also reflects on the creation of a "PTZ" for the purchase of a car, which could be targeted on young people. The possibility of a premium case is however excluded. To support automotive, the Government also put on the creation of a dedicated investment Fund (see below) and the use of professional transition contracts to accompany the dismissals.
The social treatment of unemployment (assisted contracts) remains the preferred support to purchasing power, the revival of consumption is not, at this stage, the order of the day. The Government estimated that the decline in oil prices and the decline in inflation will have powerful effects and recalled that social benefits will increase strongly on 1 January with the catch-up of the 2008 inflation. Martin Hirsch nonetheless continues to plead for quick measures for the poorest.
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