But this is not the case however ING and Fortis

At the G20 in Toronto this weekend, the skins will be saved. The schedule for the application of so-called "Basel 3" prudential standards, for end of 2012, will be reaffirmed. But in reality, the measures that the Basel Committee should transmit mid-July to national regulators to calibration tests, should finally be a little less painful and brutal that is portended by the first edition.

End of 2009, the initial regulators proposals, published just before Christmas, had resulted in a clap of Thunder in the banking sector and a sharp slide of the course. Because of the very net tightening of solvency and liquidity constraints, the first estimates of analysts evoked needs in additional own funds of hundreds of billions of euros just for European banks.

"Six months and a frenzied lobbying of the banks and even Governments later, the situation seems much less clear", summarizes a sector specialist. The arguments of the banks that would be too much higher requirements outweigh their ability of financing of the economy, slowing growth (up to 4 points in Europe according to the Institute of international finance) and cause a traffic jam of fundraising on the markets, even though States need to fund their own deficits and the recovery is coming with more uncertaineventually bear fruit. At least to some extent. "It is still too early to stop lobbying", joking and half a French banker.

Transition... and derogation

Some components of the reform are modified, either in their content, this is the case for the ratios of liquidity, either in their sizing, as for example for credit value adjustments, the CVA (see below). There is however a subject which particularly pose problem for French banks: the deductions from own funds for insurance activities. What indeed are the only all integrated life and damage to their activity. But Basel 3 provides to deduct 100 of the own funds related to such insurance holdings of their Tier-1 ratios, which could cost them billions of euros (see above). "Absurd!", ceased to argue the banks. "The regulation is not intended to compel the institutions change model, especially when it has not done." But this is not the case however ING and Fortis... And of course, these unfortunate cases do not promote the cause of the French who still hope to influence the positions of the Basel Committee. Periods of transition and departure ("grand-fathering") will probably be introduced by regulators for not to penalize the resumption, facilitate the fundraising of institutions, or even in some cases give banks time to possibly review their models. Some institutions could, for example, back of the own funds of affiliates, rating their insurance or even entities decide to assign.

"All does will be not applied end of 2012." "It will depend on many of the State of growth", confirms a subject specialist. Here is the November G20, South Korea, that should be presented the final Basel 3 measures and their specific implementation timetable. A delicate publication. "Everything which must take place in the next three years is immediately anticipated by the markets," warns a banker. Certain measures could in fact be given a greater period of time...